Welcome back to my NFL Picks for Week #6. In case you weren’t reading last week I have decided to make predictions on 4 NFL games per week and if I go 4-0 then I donate $20 to Shape Up America. If the picks end up with a record of 3-1 then I will donate $15 to Shape Up America. Feel free to donate to this great cause to help America understand obesity and how to eat healthy and lead a healthy lifestyle by clicking on the donate button in the top right of the blog.
Last week I went 2-2 with my picks with New Orleans and San Francisco covering their spreads but Carolina and the Steelers failing to do so in their games.
Onto this week’s picks:
Dallas @ Baltimore (-3.5): I am going with the Ravens here for the simple reason that the Dallas offensive line has more holes than a slice of Swiss Cheese. The Baltimore defense is not what it used to be without Terrell Suggs and my favorite player, Ray Lewis, another year older BUT Tony Romo has a way of throwing interceptions and Ed Reed is still on this team.
Let’s also remember how good the Baltimore offense, not including last week, can be and that the Dallas D for all the draft picks and free agent signings is just not as good as it should be. Their biggest problem is rushing the QB since nobody but Demarcus Ware can do it. Without pressure on Joe Flacco he has all day to find Torrey Smith or dump it off to New Rochelle, NY native Ray Rice. Rice has a terrific combination of speed and strength that will help him in this game. Plus, this game is at home for Baltimore. Give me the Ravens, Give the Points.
Bills @ Cardinals (-4.5): We all know that the Arizona Cardinals are not an offensive juggernaut but for all the money the Bills spent on defense they don’t have to be. I believe that Kevin Kolb can complete enough passes to Larry Fitzgerald to keep the chains moving and put points on the board. Couple that with the fact that the Arizona D is pretty good and well Fitzpatrick and Co are not.
The injuries to the Bills RB corps of Spiller and Jackson have depleted them and Stevie Johnson is just not the #1 WR he has been projected to be. Scott Chandler is a terrific TE but not the kind of player that a D has to worry so much about that they build a game plan around stopping him. The Bills also have to travel and traveling west always seems to take teams out of their comfort zone.
The Cardinals have been a surprise this season and maybe they have it up their sleeves to do it for a full year in what is a crazy NFC West. Really all I want is for them to do it for this week and beat the Bills by 5 points so that I can notch another victory and hope to benefit with a donation.
Minnesota (+2) @ Washington: In this one I am taking the points for the road team. The Vikings Christian Ponder has grown up since last year and looks like a completely different quarterback. Having Adrian Peterson back doesn’t hurt either nor does having one of the games most electric playmakers in Percy Harvin. Let’s not forget that this is not just an offensive team because they aren’t. The Vikings D and Special Teams (thanks to Percy Harvin) are very good too. Jared Allen should be able to get to Robert Griffin III, even as mobile as he is.
This leads me to the next reason I think Minnesota wins this game outright, never mind the points. Robert Griffin III is coming off a concussion but he is also a rookie and rookies make mistakes, even #2 draft picks. Griffin doesn’t have any WRs that would scare a defense and the proposed next star, Fred Davis, has just not produced the way he was expected. The ‘Skins do have a good running game thanks to the Shanahan’s ability to take guys off the street corner and turn them in Pro Bowlers with their scheme. Unfortunately that will not be enough this week.
New York Giants (+6.5) @ San Francisco: I must be in la la land but the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions and beat San Francisco in San Francisco last year to reach said Super Bowl. So I can’t figure out how they are getting nearly a touchdown in this game. San Fran has proven it is not unstoppable by losing to a lesser team in the Vikings. The Giants have also proved that they aren’t the gift of the league just yet with an up and down season but they still have Eli Manning and it looks like Hakeem Nicks will be playing this week.
I also want to talk about the defense in this game. The 49ers is second to none and we all know that, but the Giants are no slouches. When you look at the 49ers you also know that Alex Smith is not Joe Montana or Steve Young regardless of how well he is playing right now. Pressure from the Giants front seven and Alex Smith will not be able to find his receivers. The problem will be with the Giants having to stop Frank Gore who can be trouble for them running and receiving out of the backfield.
So let’s recap the past week and the upcoming week.
Last Week: 2-2
- Baltimore -3.5
- Arizona -4.5
- Minnesota +2
- NY Giants +6.5